Managing Catastrophic Thinking in PTSD

Managing Catastrophic Thinking in PTSD PTSD Coping Print Managing Catastrophic Thinking in PTSD By Matthew Tull, PhD twitter Matthew Tull, PhD is a professor of psychology at the University of Toledo, specializing in post-traumatic stress disorder. Learn about our editorial policy Matthew Tull, PhD Medically reviewed by Medically reviewed by Steven Gans, MD on August 05, 2016 Steven Gans, MD is board-certified in psychiatry and is an active supervisor, teacher, and mentor at Massachusetts General Hospital. Learn about our Medical Review Board Steven Gans, MD Updated on June 24, 2019 Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder Overview Symptoms & Diagnosis Causes & Risk Factors Treatment Living With In Children Marc Dufresne / Getty Images People with posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) often experience cognitive distortions such as catastrophic thinkingâ€"a tendency to expect the worst to happen without considering other possibilities. Cognitive distortions are extreme, exaggerated thoughts that dont match up with the reality of a situation. For example, a woman with  PTSD who was traumatized by rape may have the catastrophic thought that if she goes out on a date, she will be assaulted again. Although that could occur, its much more likely that the date will not feature anything upsettingâ€"it could even go well. But people who struggle with catastrophic thinking typically dont even consider that anything but the worst could happen. Understandably, focusing on the worst-case scenario leads to a good deal of anxiety and stressâ€"and in this case, could cause the woman to refuse the date. How Catastrophic Thinking Develops Living through a traumatic event destroys positive beliefs that people typically have about the world, such as that theyre safe from deliberate harm or, after someone elses traumatic event, that This cant ever happen to me. So it makes sense that someone with PTSD might fall into catastrophic thinking after exposure to a traumatic event: The trauma is viewed as proof that the worst actually can happenâ€"and seen as a sign that only traumatic events will happen from now on. No other possible outcomes are even considered. As time goes on, catastrophic thinking develops into a day-to-day coping strategy designed to help ensure that the person will never be placed in a dangerous situation again. But having catastrophic thoughts over and over can be paralyzing, leading to extreme anxiety, avoidance, and isolation. This may have the effect of undermining the coping strategy. How? By bringing back the persons sense of being constantly in danger and not safe anywhere. How to Manage The first step in managing catastrophic thoughts is knowing when you have them. Self-monitoring can be an excellent way of increasing awareness of your thoughts and the effects they have on your mood and actions. Next, take steps to move your thinking away from extremes. Allow yourself to consider other options. When catastrophic thinking starts, it may be helpful to ask yourself these questions: What evidence do I have that this thought is realistic?What evidence do I have that it isnt?Have there been times when Ive had this thought and it didnt come true?Do I have this kind of thought when Im feeling okay, or when I feel sad, angry, or anxious?What would I tell someone else who was having this thought?Is it possible that Im having this thought just out of habit?What might be a different, more realistic thought in this situation? Asking yourself these types of questions can help you break the habit of catastrophic thinking by learning to be more flexible in considering your options. Youll know youre succeeding when you feel that 1) youre not as anxious as you were before or 2) your anxiety isnt getting any worse. It may also help if you practice mindfulness about your thoughts, which can help weaken their power over your mood. Its easy: When you notice that youre having a catastrophic thought, simply view it as just a thought, nothing elseâ€"just something your mind does when youre feeling a certain way or are faced with a certain situation. Just a habit. You may decide to go out and test how well youre managing your catastrophic thinking. Similar to exposure therapy, the idea is to slowly approach the situations that brought up catastrophic thoughts in the past and see what happens now. If you dont have such thoughts, or they arent as strong and threatening as before, youll know youre making progress. Manage Symptoms With the 9 Best Online Therapy Programs Getting Treatment If you have many catastrophic thoughts, you may find it helpful to discuss them with a cognitive behavioral therapist. Cognitive-behavior therapy places a strong emphasis on the thoughts people have and how those thoughts influence their emotions and behaviors.

How Does The Group Identity Affect The Participant s...

Research Question: How does the group identity affect the participant’s social preferences? Contributions: Social identity theory was developed by Tajfel and Turner (1979) to understand the psychological basis for intergroup discrimination. After that, many studies such as Tajfel and Turner (1986), Deaux (1996), Shih (1999), Hogg (2003), Benjamin et al. (2006) etc. done in the social identity area. This study has two innovations in comparison to social psychology experiments. First, it uses a much wider class of games to measure the effects of identity on various aspects of social preferences. Second, in spite of social psychology experiments, it uses the real monetary payoffs in the other-other allocation. Moreover, in recent years, numerous studies have been done in economics experiments on group identity. However, Akerlof and Kranton (2000) systematically introduced the identity into economic analysis. In General, this study makes two contributions to the economics literature. First, it introduces a framework for the empirical foundation for incorporating identity into economic models. Second, it reveals practical implications for organization design. Design: This laboratory experiment includes one control and five treatments (Original, RandomWithin, Randombetween, NoChat and NoHelp). The treatment sessions conducted in four stages. In stage 1 (Group Assignment), participants were divided into two groups based on their reported painting preferences over five pairs ofShow MoreRelatedEssay on Human Behaviour and Social Norms1593 Words   |  7 PagesRunning head: HUMAN BEHAVIOUR AND SOCIAL NORMS Do social norms influence human behaviour? Human behaviour is the response to given stimuli, which are socially and environmentally affected. This response is something that can easily be influenced and shaped through many personal, situational, social, biological, mental factors. 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Essay Living in Utopia - 517 Words

Living in Utopia Private property is abolished in Utopia, and society is communally organized in such a way that there is no shortage and that everyone has work, food, a home and opportunities for cultural expression. Sounds great, eh? Would you like to live there, and if not, why? Your answer should take account of Mores context (why he wrote Utopia?) and should be supported by reference to the text. In Thomas Mores Utopia life is very structured there is no crime or prejudices. The people live everyday the same as the last. They dress the same, live in houses that are all designed the same, have very strictly scheduled workdays, and very regulated family life. Whatever you may think of their doctrines, you wont find†¦show more content†¦All of the houses consist of a front door, which leads to the street, and a back door that leads into a garden. These doors are double swing-doors that open easily and close behind you. The homes consist of these types of swinging doors so that anyone can go in and out when they please. Not only are all the houses designed the same but all the people also dress alike. Everyone wears the same sort of clothes-except that they vary slightly according to sex and marital status. Their fashion never changes either therefore there are no tailors or dressmakers. The outfits are very simple and loose. They dont need to be wearing anyth ing fancy because everyone looks the same. The working days are scheduled to a tee. The people must work six-hour days, three hours in the morning, and then they get lunch. After lunch they get a two-hour break then they have to finish off their workday with three more hours in the afternoon. After work everyone goes home for supper and then they have some free time. Bedtime is 8 oclock sharp and everyone must sleep for eight hours. 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The Rise and Spread of Islam Free Essays

The rise and appeal of Islam can be attributed to many factors. Islam became popular because of the Qur’an, Muhammad’s personality, the immense faith among the early followers, it’s logical and clear principles and that those principles were consistent and logical (al-Islam). It was because of Mohammed’s personality that created the interest in Islam; the religion was not immediately popular when it was first introduced. We will write a custom essay sample on The Rise and Spread of Islam or any similar topic only for you Order Now It was only after Muhammad and his followers left their home for Medina, where the population welcomed Muhammad and the Muslims. Only after Muhammad became famous was he able to garner more followers and converts to Islam (World History Connections To Today, 257). Islam’s believers increased on a daily basis because of the caliphs and their agendas. Islam exploded rapidly during the times of the caliphate through successful military conquests. The campaigns were so successful and far-reaching, that by 750 AD, Muslims controlled land from present-day Iran in the east to present-day Portugal in the west and in North Africa to the south (World History Connections To Today, 260). Many people remained loyal to the religion after the empire detiorated because of the clear principle of the belief in one God. There were no others next to him, just prophets. There were also no conflicts within the religious teachings and the principle of treating all creatures with respect resonated within its followers. It was rare to have religious tolerance practiced toward different religions, yet the Qur’an celebrated it (al-Islam). Muhammad’s popularity was the primary attraction to Islam, but its message, principles and duties is what has kept the religion together throughout many centuries. People are still dutifully performing the requirements set forth in the five pillars which are, accepting God as the one true God, performing daily prayers, giving to the poor, fasting during Ramadan and the pilgrimage to Mecca (World History Connections To Today, 258). Many factors had to congeal to form the Muslim faith, and it will continue to be strong as long as the basic tenets of the religion are held sacred. Works Cited Guertin, Wilson H. , and, Mohammed J. Chirri. â€Å"Why Is Islam Popular? † al-Islam. 2 January 2009 http://www. al-islam. org/inquiries/3. html. World History Connections to Today. Teacher’s ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Simon Schuster, 1999. Charlemagne, Contributions and the Church Charlemagne and the Carolingians contributed many legal and enlightening influences over the empire. He helped spread Christianity and sent out officials to ensure justice was met according to his laws (World History Connections To Today, 188). Improvements were also implemented in the educational sphere. Charlemagne ensured his officials maintained accurate records and even had a scholar from York named Alcuin set up a school based on the Latin curriculum. In turn, Alcuin hired scholars to copy ancient works which would be used as textbooks for almost 1000 years (World History Connections To Today, 189). The Carolingian’s ensured that educational advancements were taken seriously and as a result, there was a large exchange of information amongst schools, clerics and the court. Learning increased under the Carolingians where scholars and monks collected, copied and spread the ancient works. A type of library exchange occurred where authors would loan works and borrow books also (Schools Empire). Still under the Carolingian empire, Charlemagne was part of a groundbreaking occurrence when Pope Leo III crowned him â€Å"emperor. † The pope’s crowning implied that Charlemagne was the sole ruler of the Christian Roman Empire, a ruling that reverberated through Christendom. The crowning caused dissention between the eastern and western Christians and the Roman Catholic popes and subsequent German emperors. The split between the eastern and western churches happened because the head of the eastern empire in Constantinople was not pleased that Charlemagne was chosen as the sole head of the Christian empire (World History Connections To Today, 188). Even though Charlemagne’s kingdom deteriorated after his death, his positive reforms continued to help people (World History Connections To Today, 188). Works Cited â€Å"Schools of Carolingian Times. † School Empire. 12 January 2009 http://schoolsempire. netfirms. com/otschol. htm World History Connections to Today. Teacher’s ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Simon Schuster, 1999. Cathedrals and the Church The Roman Catholic Church and empire became very powerful and wealthy during the medieval period, therefore they built immense cathedrals to exhibit their wealth, their devotion to God and their tithing duties (World History Connections To Today, 227). Tithes were supposed to comprise 10% of a person’s income, so the wealthier a person was, the more money he or she would donate to the church (World History Connections To Today, 197). The cathedrals became a book for the teachings of the Bible and they exhibited civic pride within the community (Hilton, 1). Eventually, cathedrals became even more elaborate and began to acquire carved sculptures that depicted Bible stories to aid the uneducated, illiterate population in understanding the teachings of the Bible (World History Connections To Today, 228). Wealthy and devout congregations enabled grander and grander cathedrals to be built while the Roman Catholic Church became more powerful and more influential over its congregation. Cathedrals were even able to function as currency; some were laden with jewels so that in times of hardship, the church simply picked them out of the architecture and sold them for money (Hilton, 4). Since cathedrals were erected to exhibit devotion shows just how entrenched the church’s authority was within medieval life. The cathedrals’ and the community were governed by canon law, which were religious teachings that also governed everyday life (World History Connections To Today, 196). The church wielded absolute power and if a person violated canon law, he or she could be excommunicated, which would ban him or her from receiving the sacraments, being shunned by their peers and losing the right to a Christian burial (World History Connections To Today, 196). The church was also the hub of the village’s social life and even had theater performances and concerts held within it (Hilton, 5). The cathedral may have existed to show man’s devotion to God and as a means of educating the illiterate population, but its other function as a social center made them absolutely necessary. Works Cited Hilton, Alice. â€Å"How to Read the Great Cathedrals of Europe. † New York Times 19 April 1981. World History Connections to Today. Teacher’s ed. Upper Saddle River, NJ: Simon Schuster, 1999. Feudalism In feudalism, the nobility were comprised of several classes, the top of the hierarchy being the nobles. The ruler was the head and then there were the dukes, counts and knights. Knights were noblemen who left home at seven in order to learn how to ride, how to take care of their armor and how to fight. When a â€Å"trainee† turned 21, he became a knight. Knights existed to protect the lord and his land, which included the women and the peasants (World History Connections To Today, 192). The noblewoman’s education incorporated learning in the womanly crafts before she could be considered for marriage. Her learning consisted on knowing how to spin, how to weave and how to supervise servants. Her wifely duties were bearing many children, remaining loyal to her husband and to watch the manor while the man was away (World History Connections To Today, 193). The lord’s land was worked several days a week by peasants who received protection and housing from the lord, but were granted permission to work a small patch of land to farm for themselves. They were bound to the lord’s land and had to ask permission to leave it. If another family bought the manor, the serfs were included with it and thus, they had a new lord. In addition to working the lord’s land, they also made repairs around the manor. Peasants did not get free housing and free protection; they had to pay the lord when marrying, inheriting acres or using the mill to grind grain. The short supply of money meant that the payments were commonly in the form of chickens, eggs, grain, etc. (World History Connections To Today, 194). The clergy attended to the community and God. They were monks and nuns who rescinded their worldly lifestyle to become devoted to the spiritual one. They took oaths of poverty and vows of chastity, purity or obedience. Their main duties were prayer and worship and to provide basic social services to community like tending to the sick and impoverished. They were not completely cloistered; some became missionaries to spread Christianity and good works even further. (World History Connections To Today, 198). Therefore, everyone under the feudal system had a job. The nobles and knights gave shelter and protection, the noblewomen tended the manor, the peasants worked the land and the clergy assisted the village. How to cite The Rise and Spread of Islam, Papers

EOHS Law for Work Injury Compensation Act - myassignmenthelp

Question: Discuss about theEOHS Law for Work Injury Compensation Act. Answer: The employee has the right to make an objection against the assessment made by the Ministry of Manpower. The claim can be made within 14 days since the Notice of Assessment has been received by employee. In the given situation jack can be raise a claim if he is not satisfied in relation to the salary which has been disclosed by the employer to MOM. The employer discloses less salary so that the amount of compensation can be reduced. In addition jack can also make a claim if he believes that the assessment of the injury cause do him has not been done correctly as he has the right to dispute the assessment. Thus in the given situation where Jack is dissatisfied with the assessment made by the MOM he can file a dispute with the commissioner of labor in relation to his salary being underreported and the medical report which have been submitted by the doctor is not appropriate (1). A work injury claim can be disputed by an employer or there insurer within a time span of 14 days since the notice of assessment has been provided. In the given situation the employer has the right to claim that the assessor did not take into account the fact that the injury could have been caused due to a pre-existing disease to Jack and not the accident. In such situation it is not the liability of the employer to fully compensate jack for the injuries which have resulted out of a pre-existing disease and in relation to such right the employer can file a dispute to redo the medical assessment. Objections can include the question that whether the disease or injury is related to work or whether the Average monthly income which has been provided through the notice of assessment is appropriate. For the purpose of filing an objection the employer or the employee have to fill up the objection form attached with the NOA and such form has to be mailed or emailed to the case officer. The employees who had been subjected to Injury in relation to work have the option of choosing between a claim under the Work Injury Compensation Act and a common law claim. Both the types of claim are different from each other in relation to the process of making, withdrawing and the deadlines. The main differences between common law claim and a claim under WICA are as follows. For the purpose of making a claim under WICA the claim has to made to the MOM and will be decided by the assistant commissioner. The claim under common law can be made either to the high court or the states courts. In case of a common law claim the dispute would be adjudged by the court. In case of a claim under the WICA there is no need of a lawyer. The engagement of a lawyer is not mandatory as a lawyer is not required to complete the process of making a claim. The MOM itself guides a person making a claim through the process. However the information and guidance provided by the MOM are not given in form of a legal advice. In case of a common law claim a person requires a lawyer who needs to be paid the legal fees. When an injury claim is made under the WICA the amount of compensation which can be claimed is restricted to limits and has a set formula to be determined. On the other hand the compensation which is provided by the court has no fixed limit or formula to be determined. However the compensation is based on the provisions provided by the precedents and damages needs to be provided before the court for availing compensation. In case of the WICA proof is needed for the purpose of proving the claim. It has to be provided by the person making the claim that the injury or disease is related to work. There is no requirement of proving that there was negligence or fault on the part of the others. In case of a common law claim it has to be provided before the court that the other party was at fault and the three elements of negligence Duty of Care, Breach of Duty of care and causatio n has to be established. The suit which has been filed under WICA or common law can be withdrawn within one year since the accident has taken place. The civil claim can be filed only before the NOA has been provided by the MOM. The claim can also be withdrawn in 14 days where there is no dispute and 28 days in case of a dispute. Special damages are used by the court for the purpose of compensating the plaintiff for any quantifiable monetary losses. It is advisable to divide personal injury claims into consequential and incidental special damages claim. However there are certain restrictions in relation to obtaining compensation with respect to a special claim. Under WICA, compulsory insurance by employer and payment should be paid by insurance company. In addition jack has to prove the intention of the employer to recover $42000 from him in form of loans and advances. A special damages claim can be claimed if such damages are reasonably foreseeable. In the given situation special damages claim has been made by Jack as he predicts that the $42000 directed towards his injury would be charged by the employer in form of loans and advanced. In the given situation the insurers have the right to argue that the damages which are being claimed by Jack are not reasonably foreseeable. He cannot claim under WICA and Com mon law. It may also be argued by the insurers that claim which is made by Jack is not credible. In the case of Chang Mui Hoon v Lim Bee Leng [2013]SGHCR17 a claim for special damages had been filed by the plaintiff in Singapore which was rejected because it was not reasonable (2). In relation to the given scenario for the purpose of establishing negligence Lucy has to prove that the four essential elements of negligence were present with respect to the incident. The major elements of negligence are as follows Duty of care Breach of the duty of care Causation Remoteness of damages Duty of care- the theory for duty of care was given by the British case of Donoghue v Stevenson 1932 AC 522. The neighbor principle had been provided by this case which rules that a person must act as a good neighbor and protect any other person by taking precautions who may be reasonably injured by his actions (3). In Singapore the theory has been used in the case of Pang Koi Fa v Lim Djoe Phing [1993] 2 SLR (R) 366 (4). The fundamental principles related to the duty of care provide that a person (A) would be deemed to owe a duty of care towards any person (B) if As action can reasonably cause harm to B. The test for determining the duty of care known as the caprao test is also based on such principles as provided in the case of Caparo Industries pIc v Dickman [1990] 2 AC 605 (5) Breach of duty of care - the duty which is owed by A has to B has to be violated or breached for the purpose of establishing negligence. A duty is violated or not is analyzed by implementing the objective test which has been stated in the case of Vaughan v Menlove (1837) 3 Bing. N.C. 467 (6). According to the test if increased and enhanced safety measures are taken by a reasonable person in the same circumstances which had not been taken by A than B has violated the duty of care Causation- causation or better known as factual causation is also required to establish a negligence claim. According to the principles of causation the harm has to result out of the breach or violation of the duty of care. In case the harm is not caused directly or indirectly due to the Breach in the duty of care the concept of negligence would not be established. Remoteness- Remoteness is assessed for the purpose of determining damages in case of negligence. According to the principles of remoteness if the injury is too remote a claim for negligence cannot be made. Thus Lucy must prove that there was a duty of care which has been violated and the harm has resulted out of such violation and is not too remote. Issue The issue in this case is to determine whether Lucy can bring an action against Mark Rule For the purpose identifying whether Lucy can bring a claim against Mark it has to be proved that Mark owes a duty of care to Lucy. According to the principles of duty of care if a person can foresee the other getting injured due to ones actions a duty of care is owed by such person. The duty of care can also be established through the application of the neighbor principle or the caparo test. Application Through the application of the test in this situation it can be analyzed that a reasonable person in the position of Mark would know while driving his actions could injure the pedestrians. In addition to ensure that the duty is not breached Mark must have ensured that he checked everything was ok with the car when he left out of the garage. Thus Mark has violated the duty and injury has been cased to Lucy Conclusion Lucy can make a claim against Mark Issue Can Lucy make a claim against Abacus Garage Rule For the purpose identifying whether Lucy can bring a claim against Abacus Garage it has to be proved that Abacus Garage owes a duty of care to Lucy. According to the principles of duty of care if a person can foresee the other getting injured due to ones actions a duty of care is owed by such person. The duty of care can also be established through the application of the neighbor principle or the caparo test. The duty of care as per the objective test is violated if a reasonable person would have taken more precautions Application In the given situation if a reasonable person is paced in the situation of Abacus Garage he would be able to foresee that of breaks are not fixed the driver or any other person or property on the road may get injured. Thus there was a duty of care. The duty of care was violated as the breaks were not fixed the injury would not have been caused to Lucy if the duty was not violated Conclusion Lucy can bring a claim against Abacus Garage Issue Can Lucy bring a claim against the hospital Rules In the case of Barnett v Chelsea Kensington Hospital [1969] 1 QB 428 (7) it had the relative of the plaintiff was suffering from a terminal disease and had went to the hospital. The doctor advised the patient to go home. The patient died and a claim for negligence against the doctor had been brought by the relative. It was held by the court that negligence would only have occurred if the patient had not died if the doctor would have treated him. As the plaintiff would have died any way there was no negligence. The test provided by the court in this case was known as the But for test. Application In the given situation it can be determined through the application of the rules related to the duty of care that the hospital owed a duty of care to Lucy as it could be foreseen that the actions of the hospital may injure Lucy. The duty was breached by not giving her priority as a reasonable person would have treated the injury immediately. In the given situation through the application of the rules provided in the Barnett v Chelsea case it can be stated that Lucy would not have been injured if the hospital would have been more careful towards treating her injuries. She would have avoided permanent paralysis if she would have been immediately treated by the hospital. It was only because of the negligence of the hospital that Lucy was not able to get up and suffered paralysis. Thus it can be evidently stated that there was negligence on the part of the hospital in relation to Lucy. Conclusion As negligence has been established Lucy can make a claim against Abacus Garage. References The Work Injury Compensation Act 2016 Chang Mui Hoon v Lim Bee Leng [2013] SGHCR 17 Donoghue v Stevenson 1932 AC 522 Pang Koi Fa v Lim Djoe Phing [1993] 2 SLR (R) 366. Caparo Industries pIc v Dickman [1990] 2 AC 605 Vaughan v Menlove (1837) 3 Bing. N.C. 467 Barnett v Chelsea Kensington Hospital [1969] 1 QB 428

Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Cognitive Psychology Essay Example

Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Cognitive Psychology Essay Running head: COGNITION AND REALITY Raymond Summers Psychology 202 Cynda Hopper Change Blindness: The Proof of Ignorance Cognitive psychology is not so much difficult to see in action, but rather it is difficult to understand why. This did not stop cognitive psychologists Daniel Levin and Daniel Simons. They proposed that when a person meets another object, if that object is not important enough to the person, that same person will in fact pay less attention to it. They performed two experiments involving young and old subjects with a wide range of intellect. In the experiment one of the psychologists, Levin, would ask for directions from a subject (Daniel J. Simons and Daniel T. Levin 1997). Some time after the directions were asked the other psychologists, Simons, would rudely interrupt the discussion by carrying a door between the subject and Levin. During this interruption Simons would switch places with Levin and continue carrying on the discussion. Approximately 50% of the subjects noticed the difference even though both psychologists wore different attire, were of different build, had different hair cuts, and had noticeably different voices (Daniel J. Simons and Daniel T. Levin 1997). The majority of subjects that noticed a difference were roughly the same age as the psychologists. They performed this same experiment again only this time they dressed as construction workers, both different costumes. This time less than half of the subjects noticed the difference. They theorized that the younger subjects are more likely to associate them to there social group and are therefore more aware of the psychologist. The older subjects, however, most likely decided that the psychologists are merely students asking for directions so therefore are less aware of the psychologist. We will write a custom essay sample on Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Cognitive Psychology specifically for you for only $16.38 $13.9/page Order now We will write a custom essay sample on Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Cognitive Psychology specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer We will write a custom essay sample on Interdisciplinary Perspectives in Cognitive Psychology specifically for you FOR ONLY $16.38 $13.9/page Hire Writer This is the first experiment to prove that change blindness can occur outside of the laboratory (Daniel J. Simons and Daniel T. Levin 1997). Since then scientist have correlated this test with real life situations, for example when your friend gets a hair cut and even though you seem them everyday, you still fail to notice. This among many others is just one example of the incredible situation of change blindness. Reference Daniel J. Simons and Daniel T. Levin. (1997). Change Blindness. In [PDF]64 65. Retrieved Nov. 14, 2011, from http://public. wsu. edu/~fournier/Teaching/psych312/Lab3ChangeBlindness/Change_Blindness_Simon97. pdf.

Sustainable Development Through Energy Management in a Prototypical Small Gulf State

Sustainable Development Through Energy Management in a Prototypical Small Gulf State Free Online Research Papers Sustainable Development Through Energy Management in a Prototypical Small Gulf State Engineering Research Paper Abstract This paper studies sustainable economic development through energy management with special reference to Qatar. It raises the question on the factors that have propelled growth in the region. There is a need to identify the problems facing a fast paced economy and the measures that should be taken to sustain economic development. Furthermore, natural resource-based growth has largely tied regional development to oil price and revenue fluctuations, and has stymied efforts at economic diversification. Globalization is expected to dismantle barriers in information and communication technologies, but the corresponding opportunities that these advances may bring have not yet been fully exploited, though efforts are being made now. A platform of priorities for action identifies the key challenges that must be addressed, to enhance efforts towards sustainable development in Qatar, during the coming ten or twenty years. Introduction a.Energy Scenario in the Global Perspective Energy has been playing an important role in the economic development all over the world. World population is expected to double by the middle of this century, and economic development will continue at a faster pace in the developing world than that in the developed world. The likely result is a 3-5 fold increase in the world economic output over the next 5 decades. By 2100, per capita income in most of the currently developing countries will have reached, and surpassed levels characteristic of the developed countries today, making current distinction between the two totally obsolete. Energy availability and universal access to energy will play a major part in this growth. However, resulting from this rapid economic development, it is not certain that adequate energy services will become available to every citizen in the next hundred years. Demand for energy will continue to grow. Even though focus will shift from primary energy to final energy form, it is expected that primary en ergy requirement will increase globally by 1.5 to 3 fold by the year 2050. According to a World Energy Congress (WEC) study, energy services will move towards more flexible, convenient and clean fuels reaching the consumer. High quality energy forms will become transitional fuels of choice. Thus, there will be an obvious shift towards electricity and towards higher quality fuels, such as, natural gas, oil products, Methanol and eventually hydrogen. Environmental considerations will hold the key to the future consumption patterns of energy. b.Economy of Qatar One easily notices the rapid growth of Qatars economy in all sectors. Qatar’s gross domestic product (GDP) was over US$ 20 bn last year and it is expected to be close to US$ 22bn by the end of the current year. Such accomplishments are the natural outcome of huge investments in oil, gas and petrochemicals. When investments in huge developmental of projects of firms such as QatarGas and RasGas start bearing fruit, the already buoyant economy is expected to get a further boost by the end of the current decade. This rapid economic growth has enabled it to rank as one of the highest per capita income countries’ in the world within a very short period. Qatar has emerged as one of the world’s wealthiest states since discovery of oil in the 1970s and much later, natural gas. Thus, Petroleum products have continued to be, the cornerstone of Qatars economy for over 30 years and accounts for more than 60% of total government revenue, more than 30% of gross domestic product , and roughly 80% of export earnings. The Qatari economy’s vulnerability to oil price movements, as well as its limited crude oil resources has led the Government, in the early nineties, to explore Qatar’s huge reserve of natural gas by making a strategic business and investment decision to commercialize natural gas reserves by developing the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) sector. This led to the establishment of two major projects, namely RasGas and QatarGas, which are now major suppliers of LNG to world markets and contribute significantly to the State’s revenue. Also, Qatar has promoted investments in petrochemicals and fertilizer industries namely, QCHEM, QAFCO, QAFAC etc. Qatar has also promoted industries in the non-oil sector of the economy including Manufacturing, Construction, Finance, Insurance, Trading, Services and more recently Tourism. With such diversification in investment opportunities, production and export of natural gas in the form of LNG, pipe lin e gas, GTL and petrochemicals and fertilizers have registered a steady growth of Qatar economy during the last few years. The world demand for energy has been increasing. Table 1 below shows that Qatar’s oil and natural gas production has been increasing to cope up with the world trend. Table 1: Comparison of Qatar’s overall GDP contributors (Source: 2003 edition of the Middle East Economic Review) Overall Percentage Contribution to GDP (%) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Oil Gas Sector 45.76 60.43 57.00 57.61 59.79 Non – Oil Sector 54.24 39.47 43.00 42.39 40.29 A study of GDP growth trend as above shows the following factors which contributed to such growth: The price of Qatar’s crude oil increased from year to year over last five years. During year 2003 the crude oil price was $27.9 p/b against corresponding price of $24.5 p/b as in 2002 registering an increase of 13.9%. The production volume of Qatar’s crude oil registered a steady growth. In 2003 the production was 714,000 bpd against 640,000 bpd in year 2002 showing a growth of 11.6%. The production of natural gas was increasing from year to year since its discovery. In 2003 the production of gas increased by 12.9% from the production of 2002. The production in 2002 registered a growth of 1.9% over the production of 2001. The export of LNG was rising. In 2003 the export of LNG stood at 14.4 million tons against 13.5 million tones in 2002 showing a growth of 6.7%. In real terms, the Non-Oil sector of the economy registered a growth, but its contribution as percentage of total GDP showed decline in growth because of rapid growth of the economy resulting from high contribution from oil and gas sector. (Note: 2004 statistics are not given as the price of crude oil and natural gas is too volatile to provide accurate statistics). It could be observed that contribution of Oil Natural Gas Sector to Qatars GDP has been growing steadily in the recent past. However, volatility of the price of crude oil and natural gas makes the Qatari economy quite vulnerable since revenues generated by energy exports becomes less insecure under such situations and also since the need for revenue is likely to be a source of competition for market share in future. 1. Objective of the Study This study analyzes the operating performances of Qatar Energy Industry under the present business environment for identification of the key result areas (KRAs) that are essential for strategic decision making. The report would cover the KRAs for improving upon business results and decision making as also how funds generated could be employed for sustainable development of socio economic condition of the Country. This is crucial for improvement of the living conditions, dignity and welfare of the people of Qatar. The project report will analyze past performance and the business environment to determine the world trend of business. After a SWOT-analysis, the report aims at preparing a holistic plan for sustainable development and growth of the energy industry in Qatar for its contribution to the society. 2. Methodology Since the growth in the non–oil sector correlates with the growth of the oil and gas sector, analysis of historical Balance Sheets and Profit Loss Accounts of the companies in the oil and gas sector would generate statistical data for determination of trend in the businesses. In modern process industries and in oil and gas production industries, capacity utilization, wastage minimization and cost reduction and cost control, besides energy conservation play a crucial role in improving productivity, quality and profitability in addition to growth. Continuous innovation in technology and management is a matter of necessity for survival in a liberalized economy. In the absence of in-house RD facilities in the areas of respective line of technology, it is essential to embark upon innovative management for identification of diversification areas matching with the line of business. Assuming the hydrocarbon in the world cannot last for very long the researchers have since embarked upon technology to develop clean energy from renewable sources. Already commercial exploitation of such technology and renewable sources has taken place. Attempts are already being made to develop eco-friendly bio-fuel to meet with ever-increasing demand for energy. A mega-research project for production of hydrogen as a fuel is already underway. All such innovation in science and technology will act as competitors to hydro-carbons. However, the results of these futuristic researches may not be applicable to the next couple of decades in this world. Accordingly, attempts must be made to make the best of the available resources in the coming decades. It is essential in the long run to slowly but steadily de-link the economy of the country purely based on exploration of hydro-carbon to a process of sustainable development in line with the movement of the world. However, it is required t o develop indices to be closely monitored so as to ensuring optimal utilization of the available resources during the coming decades. 2.1 Fund Flow and Ratio Analysis The process of determining KRAs will involve analysis of historical operating performances. This could be done initially from the audited annual reports. However, for in-depth analysis, a study may be required to be made at various levels in operating areas. For illustration purposes, the audited annual report of QAFCO (Qatar Fertiliser Company) for the year 2003 was studied against the audited balance sheet for the financial year 2002. The fund flow statement has been prepared as shown in Table 2. Table 2: Fund Flow Statement for QAFCO for the Financial Year 2003 Source of Fund Application of Fund Brief Particulars Qatari Riyal Brief Particulars Qatari Riyal Increase in Paid up Share Capital 100000000 Increase in Investment in Property, Plant and Equipment 522743745 Increase in Legal Reserves 20072377 Increase in Dues from Shareholders and Related Parties 96242101 Increase in Availability of Fund for Payment of Dividend 250000000 Increase in Accounts Receivable 29867635 Increase in Syndicated Loan 651560000 Increase in Other Receivables and Prepayments 25558104 Increase in Accrual of Employers’ Service Benefit 2461760 Increase in Cash Balance and Bank Balance 426388445 Increase in Accrual of Minority Interest 12217130 Reduction in Accounts Payable and Accruals 83100445 Increase in Dues to Share Holders and related Parties 42596559 Increase in Provision for Pension Liabilities 2548042 Reduction in Value of Inventory 22805252 Increase in Retained Earnings 79639355 Total 1183900475 Total 1183900475 An analysis of the important financial ratios worked out from the said annual report is presented in Table 3. Table 3: Financial Ratio Analysis of QAFCO for the Financial Years 2002 and 2003 Brief Particulars of the Ratio 2003 2002 Return on Investment 31.09% 13.65% Margin on Sales 45.43% 26.54% Profit/Fixed Assets 22.82% 11.22% Sales/Fixed Assets 50.24% 42.26% Sales/Current Assts 32.11% 29.33% Inventory/Sales 0.0715 0.0725 Debtors/Sales 0.0415 0.0328 Material/Sales 11.46% 13.45% Employment Cost/Sales 8.47% 12.34% Depreciation Cost/Sales 8.45% 12.34% Value Added Per Qatari Riyal Employment in Riyals 9.44 6.19 Increase in Sales 46.74% Increase in Material Cost 26.42% Increase in Employment Cost 1.85% Increase in Investment in Projects 24.82% From the study of the Tables 2 and 3 the following could be observed: Increase in turn-over in 2003 over 2002 was 46.74% with corresponding increase in material cost and employment cost at 26.42% and 1.85% respectively. The increase in investment during 2003 on productive fixed assets registered a figure of Qatari riyals 522,743,745 which is 24.83% more than that during 2002. Again employment cost which was 12.34% of sales in 2002 became 8.45% in 2003 when the sales registered a growth of 46.74%. This establishes that the employment cost was not KRA for this company. With 46.74% growth in sales, the material cost increased by 26.42%. Again material content of sales, which was 13.45% in 2002 dropped to 11.46% in 2003. This suggests that there are avenues in operations to reduce the material content of production. Ratio analysis in the table above shows that the inventory holding was for 3.77 weeks of sales which was reduced to 3.72 weeks in 2003. Therefore, not much benefit could be obtained from inventory management. This suggests that attempts should be made for price reduction of material, increase in yield of material and material wastage reduction for optimizing material content of production. It is noted that against an increase in investment in productive assets of 24.82% the growth of sales registered a figure of 46.74%. The ratio analysis shows that asset turn over ratio increased from 42.26% in 2002 to 50.24% in 2003 and the margin on sales increased from 26.54% in 2002 to 45.43% in 2003. This shows that capacity of the existing plant and machinery could not be utilized fully in 2003. As the company is highly technology intensive, cost of modernization from time to time may push up the fixed cost which might raise the break-even volume of sales at current price. This suggests a detailed analysis of the operations and also a detailed audit of the cost structure. The strategy adopted may be either low volume of production with high margin on sales if the market so permits. Alternatively, high volume of production at low price strategy could be adopted to cover more market share and ultimately become a monopolist. This practice has been adopted by the Chinese manufactur ing industry which has ultimately become the production center of all manufactured goods in the world today. The fund flow statement shows that increase in investment on property, plant and equipment amounting to Qatari riyal 522,743,745 was financed principally through increase in syndicated loan amounting to Qatari riyal 651,560,000, although there was increase in cash balance and bank balance to the tune of Qatari riyal 426,388,445 which represent 81.57% of the increased in investment. This might have reduced net profit and hence the retained earnings. Subsequently, a look at the capital structure of the company may yield results in terms of reduction in liabilities and increase in return on investment. In view of the foregoing, for identifying the key result areas it would be necessary to study the following particulars: Desk Research: (a) Annual reports of the company since its inception. (b) Annual Economic Review of the Government of Qatar for the last 5 years. (c) Audited Annual Reports of the competitors in the world since last 5 years. (d) Currency fluctuation statistics between Qatari riyals and the currency of the importing country for the last 5 years. (e) The present market segment of the company. (f) Proposed market segment of the company. (g) Statistics of gas and oil price fluctuations in Qatar for last 5 years. (h) Indication of areas of alternative investments of excess funds generated keeping in line with socio economic development goals Field Research: (a) Study of the operation of the plant. (b) Study of the technology and performance of the plant. (c) Study of cost structures and establishing of a management information system. (d) Market research on a global basis. (e) Determination of a techno-commercial model with variation in quantity of sales, price per unit, cost per unit, operation at different percentage of plant capacity utilization, foreign exchange fluctuations and oil price fluctuation in OPEC. Both the above studies must be made for all the companies in the oil and gas sector in Qatar. Above mentioned ratio analysis is an analytical tool for analyzing the performance of a firm. â€Å"While ratios are easy to compute, which in part explains their wide appeal, their interpretation is problematic, especially when two or more ratios provide conflicting signals. Indeed, ratio analysis is often criticized on the grounds of subjectivity that is the analyst must pick and choose ratios in order to assess the overall performance of a firm.† [refer Feroz E.H.et.al.] Accordingly, we apply Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is basically an application of repeated linear programs, on the historical data on input and output to reinforce the study based on ratio analysis. 2.2 Introduction to DEA DEA is commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of a number of producers. A typical statistical approach is characterized as a central tendency approach and it evaluates producers relative to an average producer. In contrast, DEA is an extreme point method and compares each producer with only the best producers. By the way, in the DEA literature, a producer is usually referred to as a decision making unit or DMU. Extreme point methods are not always the right tool for a problem but are appropriate in certain cases. A fundamental assumption behind an extreme point method is that if a given producer, A, is capable of producing Y (A) units of output with X (A) units of inputs, then other producers should also be able to do the same if they were to operate efficiently. Similarly, if producer B is capable of producing Y (B) units of output with X (B) inputs, then other producers should also be capable of the same production schedule. Producers A, B and others can then be combined to form a composite producer with composite inputs and composite outputs. Since this composite producer does not necessarily exist, it is sometimes called a virtual producer. The heart of the analysis lies in finding the best virtual producer for each real producer. If the virtual producer is better than the original producer by either making more output with the same input or making the same output with less input then the original producer is inefficient. Some of the subtleties of DEA are introduced in the various ways that producers A and B can be scaled up or down and combined. The procedure of finding the best virtual producer can be formulated as a linear program. Analyzing the efficiency of n producers is then a set of n linear programming problems. The following formulation is one of the standard forms for DEA. Lambda (?) is a vector describing the percentages of other producers used to construct the virtual producer. X and Y and are the input and output vectors for the analyzed producer. Therefore, ?X and ?Y describe the virtual input and output respectively. The value of theta (?) is the producers efficiency. DEA Input-Oriented Primal Formulation s.t. ? free, ? ? 0 It should be emphasized that an LP of this form must be solved for each of the DMUs. There are other ways to formulate this problem such as the ratio approach or the dual problem but this formulation is the straightforward. The first constraint forces the virtual DMU to produce at least many outputs as the studied DMU. The second constraint finds out how much less input the virtual DMU would need. Hence, it is called input-oriented. The factor used to scale back the inputs is ? and this value is the efficiency of the DMU. The data required for application of this model are the historical data on input and output of a particular company. However, if this model is used for determination of the relative efficiencies of a particular company visvis its peers/competitors, then the input and output of all the companies are required. If historical input and output data are available, then trends of the relative efficiencies of the companies could also be easily studied. The format for data to be collected for implementing this model can be described as shown in the Table 4 below. Table 4: Format for Data to be collected for DEA Model (QAFCO, as a whole) Year Input Units (Amount/Nos.) Consumed/Used Output Units Produced Raw Materials # Employed Electricity Consumables Urea Ammonia 2003 2002 2001 etc. For determining relative efficiency of each of the four trains of QAFCO, similar format for data collection as shown in Table 5 may be adopted. Table 5: Format for Data to be collected for DEA Model (for different Trains of QAFCO) (For Year 2003) Train Input Units (Amount/Nos.) Consumed/Used Output Units Produced Raw Materials # Employed Electricity Consumables Urea Ammonia 1 2 3 4 (Repeat the same for other years like 2002, 2001, etc.) For determining relative efficiency of many companies engaged in similar kind of operations, similar format for data collection as shown in Table 6 may be adopted. Table 6: Format for Data to be collected for DEA Model (For more than one company like QAFCO) (For Year 2003, say) Co. Input Units (Amount/Nos.) Consumed/Used Output Units Produced Raw Materials # Employed Electricity Consumables Urea Ammonia 1. 2. 3. Etc. (Repeat the same for other years like 2002, 2001, etc.) 3. Research timetable Activity Estimated Timeframe Develop or adapt research objectives 1 day Design research protocol 1 week Recruit interviewers 2 weeks Translate instruments into local language 1 week Train interviewers (include pretesting and revising 2 weeks instruments in training) Collect data 2 weeks Transcribe recordings 1 week Translate transcripts 2 -3 weeks Preliminary analysis in field 2 weeks Prepare for presentation 1 day Presentation 1 day Complete analysis 2 weeks Prepare report 1 week 4. References 1) Doing Business with Qatar – Philip Dew 2) Landmark Regional Review (Arabian Gulf) Booklet – 2003 Edition 3) Landmark Technical Review Booklet – March 2003 Edition 4) Doing Business in Qatar – Qatar National Bank, 2003 Edition 5) Qatar Economic Review – Qatar National Bank, April 2003 Edition 6) International Petroleum Encyclopedia – PennWell, 2003 Edition 7) Oil and Gas in the Middle East – 2002 Edition 8) Qatari Projects: Current and Forthcoming – Qatar National Bank, March 2004 9) Mash’al Magazine – QP in-house magazine, January to August 2004 Editions 10) Structured Corporate Finance – Qatar National Bank, 2004 Edition 11) The LNG Industry – Andy Flower 12) Landmark Corporate Website (www.lgc.com) 13) RasGas Corporate Website (www.rasgas.com.qa) 14) Qatargas Corporate Website (www.qatargas.com.qa) 15) QP Corporate Website (www.qp.com.qa) 16) Official 2005 Business Plan for Dukhan Drilling – QP 17) Official 2004/2005 Dukhan Field Drilling and Workover sequence – QP 18) Business Plan for all QP Oil and Gas Projects – QP 19) Middle East Economic Review 2003 20) RasGas Magazine No. 8, July-September 2004 21) Qatar Economic Review, April, 2004 22) Oryx, August 2004 23) Annual Report – 2003, Qatar Petroleum 24) Annual Report – 2003, Qatar Fertiliser Company 25) Annual Report – 2003, Shaping the Future 26) The Peninsula, Sunday, August 29, 2004 27) Gulf Times, Saturday, August 28, 2004 28) Feroz E.H.; Kim S.; Raab R.L.; â€Å"Financial statement analysis: A data envelopment analysis approach†; Journal of the Operational Research Society; January 2003, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 48-58 (11) 29) David Hawdon; â€Å"Efficiency, performance and regulation of the international gas industry a bootstrap DEA approach†; Department of Economics Surrey Energy Economics Centre, University of Surrey, Guildford, Surrey,. GUP 7XH, UK. 5. Literature review Fetterman, D. M., Kaftarian, S. J., Wandersman, A., Eds. Empowerment Evaluation: Knowledge and Tool for Self Assessment and Accountability, Thousand Oaks, London, New Delhi: Sage, 1996 Patton, M. Q. Qualitative Research and Evaluation Methods. Thousand Oaks, London, New Delhi: Sage, 2002 Research Papers on Sustainable Development Through Energy Management in a Prototypical Small Gulf StatePETSTEL analysis of IndiaBionic Assembly System: A New Concept of SelfInfluences of Socio-Economic Status of Married MalesDefinition of Export QuotasOpen Architechture a white paperAssess the importance of Nationalism 1815-1850 EuropeThe Project Managment Office SystemMarketing of Lifeboy Soap A Unilever ProductAnalysis of Ebay Expanding into AsiaRiordan Manufacturing Production Plan